Ali Abare.
The noise has been deafening. For months, the political airwaves have been saturated with talk of grand coalitions, strange bedfellows, and a united front to wrestle power from the All Progressives Congress and President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in 2027.
We have heard the rumblings from the camps of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Mr. Peter Obi, Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso, and even disgruntled former allies of the President like Mallam Nasir El-Rufai and Rotimi Amaechi.
The idea, they want us to believe, is to replicate the 2015 merger that brought the APC to power.But as we journalists like to say, there is what is said in the studios, and there is what happens on the ground.
The recent local government election in the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja, was not just a routine civic exercise; it was a political litmus test. And if the outcome of that poll is anything to go by, then the much-hyped opposition coalition might be building its castle on a foundation of sand.
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) declared that out of the six area councils in the FCT, the APC swept the board in five, with the Peoples Democratic Party managing to take Gwagwalada.
In the crucial Abuja Municipal Area Council (AMAC), which is the heart of the capital city, APC’s Christopher Maikalangu secured a resounding victory with over 40,000 votes.
The party that has been generating so much media buzz as the potential vehicle for the opposition, the African Democratic Congress (ADC), could only muster a little over 12,000 votes in AMAC. The Labour Party, the platform that gave Mr. Obi his unexpected national prominence in 2023, was practically invisible, polling a paltry 32 votes in one of the key councils under the APP banner.
The New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) of Senator Kwankwaso was also a distant also-ran.Now, political analysts will quickly point out that local government elections are different from a nationwide presidential contest.
That is true. But to dismiss this outcome entirely would be a monumental error in judgment. The local government is the closest government to the people. It is where the rubber meets the road.
If a political party cannot prove its relevance, acceptance, or organisational capacity in a ward or area council, how does it intend to convince Nigerians that it can govern a country of over 200 million people from Aso Rock?
The results from the FCT polls have done one important thing: they have put to rest the fabricated narrative of an anti-Tinubu tidal wave.
Despite the economic challenges that Nigerians are facing—challenges that this administration has consistently explained are necessary side effects of long-overdue major reforms—the voting public in the FCT sent a clear message. They chose continuity.
They chose the party in power. This is not about blind loyalty; it is about the slow but steady appreciation of leadership.
President Tinubu came into office and immediately made tough decisions that previous administrations dodged for decades. The removal of the petrol subsidy, though painful, has plugged a leak that was draining the nation’s resources dry.
The unification of the exchange rate, while causing temporary volatility, is attracting long-term investor confidence and stabilising the economy. The Central Bank of Nigeria has reported a significant boost in foreign reserves, hitting a record high in recent times.
These are not just figures on a spreadsheet; they are the foundational blocks for a stronger economy. While the critics focus on the temporary discomfort, the government is focused on the permanent cure.
The so-called positive impacts of these reforms are beginning to trickle down. States are receiving more revenue for grassroots development because the money that was once lost to subsidy fraud is now being shared.
The FCT election was an opportunity for residents to vote based on sentiment. They voted based on their lived experience.
The fact that they chose APC candidates in five out of six councils suggests that President Tinubu’s political network, built over decades, remains formidable and deeply rooted.Contrast this with the state of the opposition.
The People’s Democratic Party, once a mighty elephant, is now a shadow of itself, wracked by internal crises and a steady stream of defections.
Just recently, the defection of Governor Peter Mbah in Enugu handed the APC a significant advantage in the South-East, a region that was supposed to be the stronghold of Mr. Obi and the PDP. The PDP is torn between those loyal to Atiku and a faction calling for a return of former President Goodluck Jonathan. When a party is fighting itself, it cannot fight an election.
As for Mr. Peter Obi and the Labour Party, the story is even more tragic. The “Obidient” movement of 2023 was a powerful social media storm, but a storm, no matter how loud, does not build a house.
The Labour Party has been crippled by leadership fights and a failure to convert online enthusiasm into grassroots political structure. The FCT, which Mr. Obi famously won in the 2023 presidential election, was a no-show for his party in these council polls.
This tells us one thing: the movement has failed to consolidate. It has not groomed successors or built party machinery at the local level. Politics, in our Nigerian context, is about structure.
It is about the ward chairman, the councillor, and the youth leader. The APC has these structures. The opposition, for all its talk, does not.And then there is the curious case of the ADC.
For a party that is being brandished as the new umbrella for the opposition, its performance in the FCT was an embarrassment. It lost woefully in the places it was expected to make a statement. This points to the fragile foundation of the coalition being built.
Unlike the merger that birthed the APC in 2013—which was a coming together of parties holding significant governors and legislators—the current opposition coalition is largely a gathering of individuals without institutional backing.
Atiku, Obi, and Kwankwaso are individuals with followership, but do they still control the structures of their respective parties? Events in the FCT suggest they do not.Furthermore, the tactics of the opposition remain rooted in unpatriotic sentiments.
As veteran journalist Dele Momodu recently noted, the opposition seems to be banking on playing ethnic and religious cards to unsettle the President.
But Nigerians are wiser. We have seen this movie before. We know that when politicians hide behind religion and ethnicity, it is usually to cover up their lack of a coherent economic agenda.
The President has offered a national vision, one focused on economic recovery and infrastructural development.
The opposition offers only noise and blackmail.It is also important to address the antics of figures like Nasir El-Rufai and Rotimi Amaechi.
These are men who were part and parcel of the APC government. They held sensitive positions. Now, feeling politically isolated or aggrieved, they are suddenly finding common cause with the very people they fought against.
This is not about ideology or the love of Nigeria; it is about political survival. Their ganging up is a spent force strategy. Nigerians have a good memory.
They remember who did what and when. These permutations, hatched in hotel rooms in Abuja, do not reflect the reality in the villages and cities where people are simply looking for good governance.President Tinubu is not a neophyte in politics.
He understands the game better than most. His entire career has been a testament to his ability to build bridges, break barriers, and outmaneuver opponents. He is not a reluctant leader like some of his predecessors.
He is a strategist who has spent a lifetime preparing for the task of leading Nigeria. To think that a coalition of convenience, put together by people who cannot win their own local government areas, will unseat him in 2027 is the height of political delusion.
The FCT election was a small window into the soul of the Nigerian voter. It showed that while people may grumble, they are not yet convinced that the opposition offers a better alternative.
The APC won because it worked for it. The opposition lost because they are yet to prove to Nigerians that they are ready for the hard work of governance.As we move closer to 2027, one thing is clear: the path to Aso Rock does not pass through the studios of TV stations or the trending pages of social media.
It passes through the polling units of Karu, the wards of Kuje, and the local governments of Gwagwalada. And if the FCT polls are anything to go by, the President and the APC are already miles ahead on that path.
The opposition must go back to the drawing board, not to plan a coalition, but to build a party. It is a lesson from the grassroots that they ignore at their own peril.
