2027: *Kaduna: Defections, Permutations, and Strategies for Uba Sani*

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By Zubairu Idris Abdulrauf.

The political landscape of Kaduna State is shifting. The gale of defections from the governing All Progressives Congress (APC) to the coalition of opposition parties, particularly the African Democratic Congress (ADC), has sent shockwaves across the state’s 240 wards.

This development has however awakened political gladiators, who are now re-strategizing ahead of the 2027 elections.

The resignation of Professor Muhammed Sani Bello( Mainan Zazzau), the erstwhile campaign Director General of Governor Uba Sani, has dominated the media space, sparking intense speculation about the fate of the ruling APC in Kaduna State.

But is this a blessing in disguise for Governor Uba Sani? Can he leverage this moment to restore confidence and chart a new course, or will he succumb to the pressures of an election year?

Unlike the previous administration of Nasir El-Rufa’i, which was marred by insecurity, particularly in central and southern Kaduna,

Governor Uba Sani’s “Kaduna Peace Model” has been a beacon of hope. This community-driven initiative, supported by the Office of the National Security Adviser, has restored a sense of normalcy to communities that have been ravaged by banditry and abductions for over a decade.

Despite pockets of incidents, largely attributed to the infiltration of renegade bandits from neighboring states, communities in Birnin-Gwari, Giwa, Chikun, Kajuru, Igabi, and other flashpoint areas are gradually returning to normalcy.

The Kaduna Peace Model’s success is a significant additive to the state’s political stability and economic prosperity.However, to further consolidate his gains and strengthen his chances of winning the 2027 elections, Governor Uba Sani must adopt new strategies.

These include:

– Strengthening grassroots engagement by bridging ethnic and religious divides through inclusive dialogue and community outreach programmes, especially the envisaged One Hundred Million Naira Ward Development Projects

.- Prioritizing security and economic empowerment aimed at addressing the root causes of insecurity and providing economic opportunities in marginalized areas.

The second phase of the peace model needs to be fast-tracked, particularly the Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration (DDR) approach

.- Fostering inclusive governance by making key appointments that reflect the diversity of Kaduna’s population.-

Building alliances and forging partnerships with traditional leaders and influencers to amplify the government’s message.With APC’s structure and Governor Uba Sani’s leadership, Kaduna can become a model for development and unity.

The 2027 horizon demands bold, people-centric moves.The defections from APC to ADC have heightened political rivalry between Governor Uba and former Governor El-Rufa’i, and the opposition is capitalizing on this momentum.

With communities taking ownership of their security and economic development, this approach will further reduce insecurity and increase economic activity in previously troubled areas, informing decision-making in 2027.

Despite progress, Governor Uba Sani faces significant challenges, including pockets of banditry and kidnapping, a struggling economy with high unemployment and poverty rates, and ethnic and religious tensions.

To overcome these challenges, Governor Uba Sani must:- Strengthen partnerships with security agencies and neighboring states to combat banditry.- Invest in economic development, focusing on agriculture, industry, and entrepreneurship.- Promote inclusive governance, ensuring all groups are represented and heard.

The road to 2027 is fraught with challenges, but Governor Uba Sani has a unique opportunity to cement his legacy and propel Kaduna State forward. By adopting people-centric strategies, fostering inclusive governance, and leveraging the Kaduna Peace Model, he can build a brighter future for all Kadunans. The time for bold action is now.

(Zubair Abdurrauf Idris is a public affairs analyst and a Community Leader)

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